Understanding Your Home Affordability in Texas - 2026 Real Insights

By Megan Bludau — Top Mortgage Originator in the Greater Houston Area

If you’ve typed “how much house can I afford?” into Google at 10:47 PM while scrolling Zillow… you’re not alone.

It’s the most searched mortgage question in the country.

But here’s the truth: Online affordability calculators are usually wrong — especially in Texas.

They don’t account for:

• Property taxes

• Insurance increases

• HOA or MUD fees

• Your real debt-to-income strategy

• Or your long-term financial goals

  
  

So let’s break it down using real numbers for Texas buyers in 2026.

Understanding the 28/36 Rule (and Why It’s Not the Whole Story)

You may have heard of the 28/36 rule:

• No more than 28% of gross income toward housing

• No more than 36% toward total debt

That’s a guideline — not a law.

In reality, most conventional (and government!) loans allow higher debt-to-income ratios depending on your overall buyer profile (credit scores, reserves, etc.)

But let’s use conservative numbers to keep this practical.

Income Scenarios (Texas Example):

Assumptions:

• 6% interest rate

• 30-year fixed mortgage

• 1.9% property tax average (varies by county)

• $250/month insurance estimate

• Minimal other debt

• 5% down payment

• Strong credit (780+)

If you make $70,000 per year, your monthly gross income would equal ~$5,833.

28% of your income for a housing budget would equal ~$1,633/month.

This would put your estimated home price range (depending on taxes, insurance, mortgage insurance, etc.) around the ~$200,000 mark.

As your income increases, your budget for a home would increase.

Why Texas is Different...

Texas does not have state income tax -- great news.

But we do have:

• Higher property taxes

• Rising homeowners insurance premiums

• HOA and MUD fees in many communities

For example, a $400,000 home in Montgomery County and one in Harris County can carry very different monthly payments due to tax rate differences.

This is why generic calculators fail Texas buyers.

Here's an example to consider:

• Montgomery county neighborhood - Woodforest - ~2.5% tax rate

• Harris county neighborhood - The Heights - ~2.09% tax rate

• Fort Bend county neighborhood - Cane Island - ~3.3% tax rate

Most buyers don't realize how much taxes impact affordability in Texas.

There can also be a pretty significant difference in tax rates if you're looking at new construction homes (higher taxes!) vs. pre-existing homes in established neighborhoods.

How I Calculate Affordability for My Clients:

When buyers work with me, we review:

• Debt-to-income ratio flexibility

• Credit profile

• Down payment strategy

• Long-term plans (stay 5 years or 15?)

• Refinance options

• Local tax rates specific to target neighborhoods

This is why buyers working with the Megan Bludau Team consistently feel confident in their numbers before ever writing an offer.

Because affordability isn't about maxing out -- it's about staying smart.

The Bigger Question: What's Your Comfort Zone?

Just because a lender approves you for $550,000 doesn’t mean you should buy at $550,000.

The real question is: What payment feels sustainable with your lifestyle?

Affordability should support:

• Savings

• Travel

• Investing

• Flexibility

  
  

Not stretch you thin.

The Bottom Line

If you’re wondering how much home you can afford in Texas in 2026, the answer isn’t a Google calculator.

It’s a real conversation based on:

• Your income

• Your debt

• Your credit

• Your goals

• And Texas-specific costs

Ready to Start Your First Home Journey?

If you’re ready to see your real numbers — not an internet estimate — let’s build your plan.

👉 [Schedule your consult →] Schedule with Megan Bludau 

👉 [Submit your mortgage application→] Get Pre-Approved Now

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